Despite a total overhaul of the roster, with Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Alex Caruso all traded over the past 12 months, the results remained the same. But this season felt different.
Back-to-Back Seasons, Back to the Play-In
Artūras Karnišovas and the Bulls’ front office finally took the plunge, shedding the remnants of a middling core and shifting focus to their youth movement.
While the front office didn’t bottom out for draft positioning, they took meaningful strides toward a long-term identity, headlined by a rising young core led by Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, and trade acquisition Josh Giddey.
Rookie Matas Buzelis, selected 11th overall, flashed as perhaps the team’s brightest long-term gem, showcasing elite shot-blocking and two-way potential.
Still, Chicago finds itself in an all-too-familiar position — hosting the Miami Heat in a 9 vs. 10 play-in matchup on April 16. It marks the third straight year the Bulls and Heat meet in the play-in.
Miami eliminated Chicago in each of the past two, most recently sending them home on their own floor in 2024.
But this time feels different, too.
Bulls Hold Momentum, But Heat Bring Experience
The Bulls swept the regular season series against the Heat, winning all three matchups, including a 119-111 win just last week.
In that game, Nikola Vucevic outdueled Bam Adebayo, and the backcourt duo of White and Giddey outshined Tyler Herro and company. Even with Josh Giddey nursing a forearm injury, Chicago enters the game as a slight favorite at -1 on DraftKings IL, with a moneyline of -115.
Statistically, the Bulls hold the upper hand since the All-Star break. Chicago has posted a 17-10 record with a +4.8 net rating, compared to Miami’s 12-17 mark and +3.0 net rating. Advanced metrics show that efficiency in the halfcourt offense has tilted in the Bulls’ favor, a proven predictor for postseason success.
Yet, history and coaching loom large. With Erik Spoelstra on their sidelines, Miami certainly boasts the more accomplished NBA play-caller. If it comes down to in-game adjustments, Chicago Head Coach Billy Donovan is the clear underdog.
The Heat’s playoff poise and defensive schemes can’t be ignored, especially when they’ve sent the Bulls home two years in a row.
However, there are cracks. Miami is just 6-14 as a road underdog this season and 12-16 in close games (spreads between +3 and -3). Meanwhile, the “cardiac Bulls” have thrived in those moments, going 10-5 in the same scenario.
Beyond the numbers, the cost of winning remains a looming question. Advancing to the playoffs means forfeiting a potentially valuable lottery pick. Is the chance to face the Cleveland Cavaliers in a probable first-round sweep worth that price? That debate will hover regardless of Wednesday’s result.
But for a team searching for a new identity, playing meaningful basketball — and possibly getting revenge on Miami — could be the start of something real.
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