Bookmakers have finished compiling the odds landscape for the 2023 MLB season, providing in-depth betting futures on props ranging from division winner to World Series Champion.
Coming off an abysmal 2022 season, the Chicago White Sox have their expectations set on outperforming expectations heading into the new year with a revitalized roster. While this holds true, Vegas has shown to hold some differences in opinion on the matter.
Expert statisticians have offered their input in the left-hand column, noting down the predicted win-loss ratios based on statistical measures, trends, and downtrends within both the league as a whole and within the teams themselves.
The Chicago White Sox is the only team to see a positive win percentage increase above five percent when comparing Vegas probabilities to Fangraphs.
What does this mean for MLB bettors going forward?
This development bodes well for the team, as they finished 2nd in the AL behind the Cleveland Guardians. In addition, while Cleveland finished first last year boasting a 92-70 record, bookmakers and statisticians alike expect a clear level of regression as they are pinned to win 83 between 86.5 games.
In the best-case scenario, this would indicate a loss of around 2 percentage points year to year and in the worst-case scenario, it could be as much as 4 percent.
Despite this, the Chicago White Sox appears to be the opposite of a value bet this season. Chicago is seen as an odds favorite, while statisticians play down their value. The discrepancy in probability is concerning due to the large gap in expected wins.
As for now, the main value ought to be fading the White Sox heading into the season, as the 86.5 Over/Under line is far more lucrative seeing as stat sites peg them down to lose 12 games below the line.
Such a wide margin could not only indicate a seriously mispriced line but an opportunity to bank before the bookmakers realize their mistakes. This could also imply that in terms of MLB betting, they may be the most overvalued team by bookmakers.