Horse racing odds and implied probability
In horse race betting, odds are expressed either as fractions or as decimals. For example, a horse might be listed at odds of 5/1 or 6.00, depending on the bookmaker. Both formats convey the same information: the amount of money you could win if your bet is successful relative to your initial stake.
So, how do you calculate your potential winnings based on the odds?
Let's use the example of a horse with odds of 5/1. This means that for every $1 you bet, you stand to win $5 if the horse wins. So, if you bet $10 on the horse and it wins, you'll receive $60 in total ($50 in winnings plus your original $10 stake).
Now that you understand how the odds work let's talk about implied probability. This refers to the likelihood of a horse winning a race, as represented by the odds.
How to calculate implied probability
You need to convert the odds into a percentage to calculate the implied probability of a horse winning.
Let's take the example of a horse with odds of 5/1, which we know can be expressed as a decimal of 6.00. Using the formula, we can calculate the implied probability as follows:
1 / (6.00 + 1) = 0.1667 or 16.67%
According to the odds, the horse has a 16.67% chance of winning the race. Of course, this is just a prediction based on the data available at the time, and many factors can influence the outcome of a horse race.
It's worth noting that bookmakers set their odds based on many factors, including the horse's past performance, the jockey, the track conditions, and the level of competition in the race.
As a result, the odds can change in the lead-up to the race as more information becomes available.